more exceptional c++ 周波：“极限竞争”距离冲突仅一步之遥

法国外交部长勒德里安将这一不同寻常的行为形容为 “背后捅刀子”。这表明美国为了孤注一掷对抗竞争对手，已经可以不择手段到牺牲重要盟友。

不过，尽管几艘核潜艇可能确实会使北京的决策复杂化，但它们改变不了大局。对澳大利亚来说，平衡术可能太难学，从历史上看，澳大利亚士兵大多是作为喽啰去打“大哥”的仗。

这一次，莫里森政府显然已决定不惜冒着与中国发生军事冲突的风险，站在美国一边。鉴于澳大利亚在未来几十年内不可避免地要依赖美、英的核技术，继任的澳大利亚政府都会受制于莫里森政府做出的这项决定。

即使有英国和澳大利亚的帮助，时间也不在美国这边。五角大楼针对台湾问题的历次计算机模拟军演显示，美国一而再再而三地输给中国。当然，这不是中国自满的理由，但如果在中国的周边地区发生冲突，中国人民解放军完全拥有主场优势。

相较于20世纪80年代，如今的美国武装部队规模更小，也更为老旧，而解放军则恰恰相反。迄2019年，解放军海军拥有约350艘舰艇，数量超过美国海军的约293艘舰艇。虽然数量不等同于质量，但数量本身也反映了一定的质量。

没有什么比国防开支更能说明一国对安全形势的评估。三十年来，中国的军事开支一直保持在国内生产总值的2%以下，这充分说明中国对其所面临的安全挑战充满自信。

倘若中国觉得威胁大到不得不增加国防开支，那么这个世界第二大经济体能轻易地将国防预算增加一倍；但美国的军费开支已是中国三倍，是否还有能力再将军费开支翻一番呢？

拜登说，美国将采取对华“极限竞争”的形式，但不会发生冲突。然而，当竞争走向极端，它离冲突也就只有一步之遥了。与强调竞争的美国相反，中国大声疾呼合作，但是一个巴掌拍不响。国家若没有实力就无法竞争；同样，拥有实力才能合作。

美国外交和国防政策像一个钟摆，总是在张弛之间横摆。问题是，已经战略收缩的美国何时会回摆，或者说它还可不可能回摆？美国从阿富汗撤军被认为是美国聚焦与中国竞争的一种手段，只有时间能证明这是否是一个明智的决定。

但是，如果这是一个愚蠢的战略失误，那将是比越南战争、伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争加起来还要严重的致命错误。它将会永远终结美国自19世纪末以来的霸权地位，使其一去不复返。

翻译：祖白地亚

校译：许馨匀、韩桦

ZHOU Bo: As the US on ‘ ’ with China, is just a step away

The dust from the war has yet to but the is clear. With the of the US on , the to Joe Biden’s “ ” with China has begun. The is: how long will it last?

If the 20-year war in is a “ war” for the , then its with China could be as “ ”, it will last . Gone are the days when China could “hide its and bide its time”.

The - in the world is too big to hide. And it is for to bide its time when takes it as its .

But in the field, the die is cast. At the end of last year, China’s was 70 per cent of ’s. It is that, by 2030, China will the US to the world’s in terms of gross .

to Yale Paul , this will be a that has not since the 1880s, when ’s ’s. For the 20th , the was about two to four times than that of any other great power.

When China as the world’s , as prime Kevin Rudd out, it will be the first time since III (1738-1820) that the world will have a non--, non-, non- state as its .

This will be a for , who have been fed the myth since they were born that is “” or “”. They will have to come to terms with sense: rise and fall; are like else.

When the of an “ state” such as China that of the US, the of will be at its nadir. to House, the globe has been since 2006. Polls show that most are with the state of the US.

said that “ is the worst form of all those other forms that have been tried”. If this that, in spite of its , is still than other forms of , then the on 6 how can be or even .

It is hard to the – the seat of – would be by a mob of at the call of Trump and false of fraud.

Until 2030, China-US will most in that the US will take it as the last to bring down a power. The “Aukus” the US, and the US to share its - with , which meant ’s - deal with .

Such an move, by Jean-Yves Le Drian as a “stab in the back”, shows how the US could to a at the cost of an ally.

But while a few subs might - in , they are not game-. For , is an art too to learn. , most of the wars that are other ’s wars which they as .

This time, the has to risk ’s side in a with China. Given ’s on US and in the to come, the has left to its .

Even with some and help, time is not on ’s side. The ’s war games over the US to China. Of , this is no for China to be , but a occur in China’s , the ’s Army (PLA) has all the of being on home turf.

Today, ’s armed are and older than they were in the 1980s. The PLA is just the . By 2019, the PLA Navy had about 350 ships, the US Navy’s 293 ships. is not , it has a all its own.

of a ’s more than its . For three , China’s has below 2 per cent of GDP. It about China’s self- about its .

If China feels to the that it has to its , the - could to the ; but can the US its , which is three times than China’s?

Biden said that US with China will take the form of “ ” than . But when , it is one step away from . to the US, which , China has for . But it takes two to tango. A ; , it can only with .

The of US and and . The is when will an in swing back, or will it swing back at all? The US pull-out from was as a means for to focus on with China. Only time will tell if this is a wise .

But if it is a , then it is a error more than the , Iraq and wars . It will doom ’s , held since the late 19th , for good.

Zhou Bo is a at the for and at and a China Forum

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